Trading Options Around FOMC, CPI and the Jobs Report

Reviewed by Leon Moyer - Published October 9, 2026 - Last reviewed October 9, 2026

Macro events are scheduled economic releases, such as the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decisions, the monthly CPI inflation report and the monthly jobs report, that can move the whole stock market at a time everyone knows in advance. Because the timing is known, options price the expected move ahead of the release through higher implied volatility (IV), the market's estimate of how much prices will swing.

This lesson covers the releases themselves, how to read the move options are expecting, and why buying options before the news is harder than it looks. New setup for this lesson: XYZ here is a hypothetical ETF that tracks the broad U.S. stock market, not the chipmaker in the other lessons of this module.

When are FOMC, CPI and jobs report releases?

• FOMC decisions. The Federal Open Market Committee, which sets U.S. interest rate policy, holds eight regularly scheduled meetings a year. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. Eastern Time on the last day of the meeting. Four meetings a year also include the Fed's economic projections, and the minutes follow three weeks after each decision.
• CPI. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) publishes the Consumer Price Index, the main U.S. inflation measure, monthly at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.
• The jobs report. The BLS Employment Situation report, with payrolls and the unemployment rate, also comes out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, usually on a Friday early in the month.

The timing matters. Regular U.S. options trading on Cboe's exchanges opens at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time, so an 8:30 release lands while stock and ETF options cannot trade. A few index products, such as SPX and VIX options, also have an overnight Cboe session that runs until 9:25 a.m., and options on futures follow their own exchange's longer hours, but an XYZ-style fund option does not. When the regular session opens, prices jump straight to the news. You cannot react in between, and a stop order cannot protect you from that gap. The FOMC statement, by contrast, arrives mid-session, and prices can swing sharply in the minutes after.

How do options price a macro event?

Traders know the release is coming, so they bid up options that expire after it. Implied volatility for those expirations rises into the event and usually falls once the number is out, because the uncertainty it represented is gone. The IV crush covered in Course 1, in the lesson IV Crush After Earnings - Why Options Can Lose Value, applies here too, usually on a smaller scale for a broad index fund than for one stock's earnings report.

A common shorthand for the expected move is the price of the at-the-money straddle: one call and one put at the strike nearest the current price, same expiration. Its cost is roughly the move, in either direction, that the market is paying for. The Course 3 lesson The Expected Move Before Earnings - How to Read the Implied Move applies the same shorthand to single stocks.

What can a straddle bought before a macro event make or lose?

Buying that straddle is a bet that XYZ moves more than the market expects, in either direction. At expiration, before fees:

• Maximum loss: the $177 paid, if XYZ finishes exactly at $100.
• Maximum profit: unlimited if XYZ rises, and up to $9,823 if XYZ fell all the way to zero.
• Break-evens: $100 - $1.77 = $98.23 and $100 + $1.77 = $101.77.

These formulas match the Options Industry Council's long straddle guide, which also warns that falling implied volatility reduces the straddle's value.

That warning is the catch. The day after CPI, the event premium is gone.

A dramatic headline is not enough. If the number surprises but the market moves only as much as the straddle implied, the buyer roughly breaks even or loses. The buyer needs a bigger surprise than the one already priced.

Is selling options before CPI or FOMC safer?

Selling the same straddle collects the $177 up front and profits if XYZ moves less than expected. It is not safer, and its risk is large:

• Maximum profit: the $177 collected, if XYZ finishes at $100.
• Maximum loss: unlimited if XYZ rises, and up to $9,823 if it falls to zero.
• Break-evens: the same $98.23 and $101.77.

The Advanced Strategies course covers the position in depth in Short Straddle - Selling Premium With Undefined Risk, and defined-risk ways to sell event premium, such as iron condors, in its Multi-Leg Neutral Strategies module.

Which sectors move most on macro news?

Macro releases move the whole market, but not evenly. Rate decisions and inflation data often hit interest-rate-sensitive groups, such as banks, real estate and utilities, harder than the broad index. If you trade Sector ETF Options, check the macro calendar as well as the fund's own events before picking an expiration.